So I’m gonna make an election prediction that probably isn’t going to go over very well (and it’s one I’ve been saying in private for a while to the people I can legitimately talk politics with). And that’s okay, I’m used to it. All the other election predictions I’ve made, despite coming true, haven’t gone over well either.
First, since nuance is basically dead and everyone seems to act like you’re the enemy if you don’t agree with them 100%, let me say something. I don’t like Trump. I’m not a Trump supporter. Didn’t vote for Trump last time. (Didn't vote for Hillary either). And I won’t vote for him this time.
But—Trump will have two terms.
Prepare yourself if you don’t like the man, because he will have two terms.
The Democrats learned nothing during the last election. Nothing. They’ve shown this time and time again. The people who like Trump, still like Trump. The people who hate Trump still hate Trump. And most of the liberal Democratic base still doesn’t understand him or his appeal.
Here’s what I think will happen: the Dems will use constantly shifting debate requirements to keep the candidates they don’t like jumping through hoops as they whittle down the field to try to knock out people like Bernie and Tulsi. All while engaging in the same sort of smear campaign they used last election. (They’ve already done this and it will continue, only moreso.)
If there is a clear front-runner going into the convention, it’s going to be some centrist, middle-of-the-road, business as usual candidate. Probably Joe Biden.
If there is not a clear front-runner going into the convention, then the Dems will use their super-delegates to pick their candidate of choice—probably Joe Biden. The Dems will then go into Blue No Matter Who mode, urging people to ignore actual policy and actual stances on issues because blue=good and red=baaaad. Bernie will resume lapdog status.
If it’s Biden (and it’s probably going to be Biden, I'm serious--it's probably going to be Biden), Obama will stump for him. And then, like last election, it will be the usual response to criticism you see from Dems and their firmest supporters—name calling and insults.
Trump meanwhile will continue to be Trump and he’ll do what he do. And he’ll win. Especially against Creepy Uncle Joe.
And because we’ve been convinced the Presidency is the end-all-be-all of everything, no one will really be paying much attention to anything else (like the 33 Senate seats and the 435 seats in the House that are up for grabs).